Trap Structure of Utricularia Australis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Trap Structure of Utricularia Australis - Essay Example Alkhalaf Et.al (2008) further points out that most the Utricularia australis normally colonizes open habitats with scarce macronutrients and in turn compensate this deficiency through attracting, trapping and subsequently digesting small animals from which they derive nitrogenous nutrients. The bladderworts (Utricularia sp) are characterized by possession of some rather tremendously complex structures used for trapping known as suction bladders (Alkhalaf, Hubener, & Porembski, 2009). These highly specialized suction bladders are also responsible for digestion as well as absorption of captured prey. Utricularia tend to grow in marshy habitat, in streaming water or stationary water extending their roots up to several meters below water surface (Davis, 2003). Just as the species name suggest, they are mainly found in some parts of Western Australia, South wales as well as Victoria and Tasmania. The structure of the Trap The suction traps are discoid in shape and hollow with a foliar ori gin. Their hollow cavity with an average length of about 2.5mm, referred to as the bladder, is filled with water. The bladder is made of a wall thickness of two cells (Adamec, Functional characteristics of traps of aquatic carnivorous Utricularia species, 2011). In the two differing layers of cells, cells in the inner layer are elongated and arranged in a radial manner around the hinge region centrally located. These cells appear to be in concentric circular lines that reveals a constriction of the cells within this region. Thus these constrictions have been deemed to act as pre-folds to increase flexibility in opening and closing the trap door. The bladder also has a glandular layer with a variety of glands as well as trichomes which are also located on the outer surface of the bladder. From the roof of the bladder, there is a beak-like extension that forms a canopy over the entrance curving downwards frontwards such that the base of the beak-like canopy is opposite the base of the trap. The entrance of the bladder is tubular with a very much in-slopping-like door. Similarly, on the external side of the trap door there are trigger hairs, which when touched by a prey organism, they stimulate the opening of the trap door thereby making the prey to suctioned into the trap before the door closes again to create a water tight seal (Adamec, Photosynthetic CO2 af?nity of the aquatic carnivorous plant Utricularia australis (Lentibulariaceae) and its investment in carnivory, 2009). In Utrucularia austali, the traps are regarded to be of great structural and energetic benefit. They normally alter the percentage of the trap biomass depending on their certain habitat factors such availability of prey (Adamec, Sirova, Vrba, & Rejmankova, 2010). As a matter of fact, nearly 55% of the plant’s total biomass is formed by the traps. Both the internal and external glands serve to secrete mucilage that attracts organisms into the traps. This is the case especially when ca pturing the free floating phytoplankton that cannot move by themselves. It has been documented that in some instances, the traps establishes a mutual existence with some of the captured preys especially phytoplankton, where the traps serve as safe habitats to the phytoplankton whereas the latter provides the plant with nitrogenous products released by these organisms (Alkhalaf, Hubener, & Porembski, 2009). Development of trap In terms of the developmental stage of the trap, Adamec (2009) points out that traps begin to form as early as possible since they form a very basic organ. This is the case because their chlorophyll

Overweight Children Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Overweight Children - Essay Example Most cases children are left for the nannies to take care of them who in turn do not bother much with diet. The children whose parents do not monitor their food intake tend to take more junk food as snacks at all times of the day even after meals. The other causal reason to blame parents is the lack of exercise for their children. There are numerous playing grounds in neighborhood where children can play after school or on weekends to burn the fat and be healthy. However, parents buy them video games and they spend unlimited time on them hence not getting enough exercise. The other blame party is the influx of fast food outlets around the neighborhoods. Fast food attracts not only children but adults and they are convenient for most people with the busy life of work. Children are left money to order meals and they order fast food such as pizza and burgers which are full of starch and not enough vegetables. The end result is the children increasing in weight. The fast food owners should not sell the fast food to children without supervision of an adult. They should also include healthy food such as vegetables and fruit salads in their menu to encourage healthy eating. Majority of the blame however even though both parties have participated is towards the parents. They should try to be more careful about the health of their children. It is understandable that they are busy but they should find time to ensure that their children eat healthy food. As children grow, they understand what they are taught and will practice. Parents should talk to their children about the negative effects of eating a lot of unhealthy food and do this with numerous examples. The parents should also practice what they are saying and ensure themselves are not eating unhealthy food and especially in front of the children. Lastly, the parents should make it a point of making regular visits to the doctor to have their children weight and growth

Exchange Rate Policies Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Exchange Rate Policies - Essay Example Above balance of trade in favor of China says a lot about the comparative advantage that China has in a vast array of goods. Moreover, the pertinent point is that China has successfully tilted the advantage in its favor through a managed exchange rate regime. It is of no surprise that China has accumulated over $3trillion in its reserve through this comparative advantage in trade. A couple of years back, China had pegged its currency Yuan at about 8.28/dollar and that remained at that level fairly for a long time. China transited to a ‘managed float’ in 2005 but till date it has refrained from ‘free floating’ Yuan. China does so because it does not want to see its currency appreciate against dollar. In doing so, China may lose the comparative advantage that it has gained across a wide range of goods. The U.S. is passing through a dire recession and unemployment rate continues to hover around 9 percent for last several quarters. There is no denying to the fact that the U.S. industries are at great loss so far comparative advantage is concerned. That is why economists like Krugman (2011) strongly advocates that a weak dollar is in the interest of U.S. to protect its producers. That is also a way to eliminate the U.S. trade gap with China providing a level playing field to the U.S.

Phineas Gage Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Phineas Gage - Research Paper Example Human beings can speak and learn every day and learn new daily activities. Human being also solves problems and makes decisions based on their judgment (Fleischman, 2004). There are different types of cognitive functions. Memory and learning are examples of cognitive functions of the brain. Problem solving, perception and movement of various body parts are examples of cognitive functions. Learning of new activities and words, reading and speaking often get coordinated by the brain. These functions differentiate the human beings from other species. Theses cognitive functions originate from the cerebrum part of the brain. The cerebrum comprises of the temporal lobes, frontal lobes, occipital lobes and the parietal lobes. These areas of the cerebrum have different functions (Macmillian, 2002). The Phineas Gage accident clearly explained the functions of the brain in the cognitive functioning. Gage got the brain injuries while he was excavating rocks that he would later use for construct ing railway tracks. The rail roads injured Gage with some of his workmate during construction of the rail roads. Gage got severe brain damage. He got treated, but later became left with a permanent brain damage. The accident affected his brain thus affecting all his daily activities. Doctors that treated Gage noticed that he behaved different after the accident. This led to the doctors examining Gage’s skull to find out what was wrong that Gage was responding differently after treatment following the accident (Linden, 2007). This accident helped to explain the importance of the brain in cognitive functions. After the accident, Gage personality changed. He started acting differently from his earlier actions. Gage lost his personality. The doctors examined the brain and found out that the left frontal lobe of the cerebrum coordinates the personality development. This showed that Gage left frontal part of his cerebrum got damaged. This affected his personality development, hence the reason why there was a loose in his personality. The doctors examined the lesion in the brain and made a conclusion that, the left frontal part of the brain controlled the personality of human beings. So, Gage left frontal part of his cerebrum got damaged explaining why he lost his personality (Linden, 2007). Gage could not make rational decisions and his emotions were unstable. After the accident, doctors treated Gage, but he did not fully recover from the treatment. The doctors discovered how Gage decisions and emotions got affected. This encouraged the doctors to examine the human brain and find out what affected his decision making and his emotions. The doctors found out that the right plus the left prefrontal cortices of the brain remained damaged. This showed that the cortices were responsible for the functioning of human emotions and decision making (Fleischman, 2004). The doctors examined the left and right prefrontal cortices and came up with a conclusion that they wer e responsible for the coordination of emotions and decision making in human beings. The study revealed how the human brain works. Different parts of the brain often get associated with its cognitive functioning. One of the cognitive functions of the brain is to coordinate the emotions and decision making the human being. The study of the brain by the doctors enabled the doctors understand the functioning of the brain. This brain study led to understanding the functioning of

History Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

History - Essay Example The movement received wide level of recognition and support among the urban youths and the marginalised urban poor. In the same way, supporters of the movement included diverse grassroots organizations from the rural areas and provincial cities, peasant organizations, civic, political and economic networks, and professional cadres. The proponents of the movement also aimed at dismantling dictatorship and building â€Å"a democratic state that prioritised the demands of the excluded and exploited majority and their full participation in deciding the agenda of their communities and of the nation† (Dupuy 91). A critical evaluation of the movement convinces one that the legacy of Haiti’s revolution has had great influence on the objectives, as well as outcome, of the Lavalas movement and this calls for the need to unearth the influences of Haitian revolution on the Lavalas movement. The Haitian Revolution has often been regarded as the most successful rebellion initiated by the slaves in 1791that culminated in the abolition of slavery and French domination. In fact, the revolutionaries were influenced by the French revolution itself and fought for equality, fraternity and liberty. Even though, the Haiti revolution was proved to be successful, poverty, were political and economic instability haunted the nation.

Structural approaches to systems of signification are rooted in linguistic theory Essay Example for Free

Structural approaches to systems of signification are rooted in linguistic theory Essay A general analysis of language assists in the deconstruction of meaning as it inscribes in different types of narratives (whether verbal or non-verbal). This analysis can be divided into 4 processes. The first process is the identification of sign systems used in particular social situations. The second process is the determination of body movements, sounds, or letters that individuals use to express the sign system. For example, when an individual refer to the term ‘funeral’, then all individuals in a particular social group must know the proper reference to a funeral. The fourth process is called social convention. Every individual in a community or group must agree on a common set of meanings for the sign system. The fifth process is the rate by which signs changes meaning. This phenomenon is common in Western societies where words and symbols often change as a response to social, economic, and political changes. One of the leading figures of semiotics is Roland Barthes who applied the structuralist linguist theory of Saussure to the study of mythology. His research paved the way for the development of a ‘contemporary mythology. ’ The findings were as follows: 1) The elements involved in narratives are often objects which assume meaning that transcends beyond their aesthetic and normative value. The development of this set of meanings is often expressed in the so-called ‘second level language’; 2) Barthes also identified the so-called ‘second order semiological system’, a sign system which enables people to communicate with each other; 3) An object assumes meaning when society attaches a particular value to a place, object, and entities. However, the significance of an object, idea or place may also be ambiguous and may assume a set of meanings that may be hard to deconstruct. The ability to deconstruct meaning depends on a number of factors: 1) the complexity of the social situation, 2) the relationships of the actors involved, 3) the complexity of the general sign system used, 4) the range of possibilities, and 5) the biases of the researcher. Deconstructing meaning is a process by which an individual attempts to relate one set of meaning to another in a particular situation; that is, the repercussions of motives and intentions are always embedded in behavioral orientation. 2) Language is a system of distinct signs which correspond to distinct ideas (Saussure 1966:16). Please explain the nature of sign according to Saussure’s theory of language. With the publication of the Course of General Linguistics, Ferdinand de Saussure established a formal theory of language. Some of the assumptions of his theory were as follows: 1) There is a distinction between language and parole (speech). According to Saussure, language is the system of symbols in which individuals communicate. Parole refers to actual utterances. Since individuals communicate in an infinite number of utterances, it is the symbolic system which is deemed more important. In providing distinction between uttering and language, one is also separating: a) what is social from what is individualistic, and b) what is essential from what is supplemental. Saussure likened this proposition to a chess game. The chess game has rules which define the overall essence of the game. Utterances are the actual moves of the players. The rules reflect the language used in the game; 2) Languages do not produce different versions of reality; they in fact produce different realities. According to Saussure, the differences in language reflect the general differences not only in the interpretation of what is real but also the notion of what ought to be real. In short, if a language does not have a word for ‘natural’ then individuals who use such language will in effect submerged in a world which is unnatural. Here, the term ‘natural’ is both ambiguous and vague because individuals have no common assumptions of what is ‘natural’; 3) Language is the means by which social meanings is communicated through the use of signs. A sign or a word defines the relationship between the assumed image of a set of sounds or signifiers and the actual image in an individual or group’s consciousness. A sign is a mediator between the assumed and the actual, between the real and the immaterial. According to Saussure, signs define the conceptual outlook of particular objects, entities, and even other ideas (Wittgenstein called this as referent idea). For example, the word ‘family’ describes both the ideal notion of a ‘family’ and the actual image of a family (reality). In short, a sign define the ideal and realistic boundary of specific ideas, objects, and entities. The bond, however, between the signifier and the signified is both arbitrary and necessary. The principle of arbitrariness is predominant when all ideas about the boundary of language are assumed to be in unity. Here, language is assumed to be a matter of social convention; that is, a general creation of collective consciousness. Hence, the set of signifiers (signs) becomes a means to describe and define the image of an object, idea, or entity. Signs become, as what philosophers of language called, an ‘arbitrary assumption of events’ – events which are either singular or plural in orientation. Signs therefore are subject to social change – as actors periodically change the meaning and application of signs in a sign system. In some cases, the change is radical that the original symbolic meanings are radically altered. Here, the signs remained intact, but the associated meaning greatly changed. This radical change is though not separated from changes that occur in a larger social environment, for it is the social environment which is the initial source of change. Saussure defined language as both a ‘social phenomenon’ and a ‘psychological phenomenon. ’ It is a social phenomenon because the significance of signs is dependent on social context or milieu. Social context here refers to a state of perpetual change in language over time. In fact, Saussure argued that all languages are equal in complexity. This assumption may be ambitious, but it has not without basis. Languages change because the social contexts to which they are located also change. A good example of language change is the creation of new words in many of the leading world’s languages. This process of language ramification is perhaps due to the rapidly increasing communication among individuals, groups, and institutions. However, much of the newly created words are ambiguous and vague in form. Many individuals either attach multiple meanings to a word or simply fail to attach a clear cut meaning to such word. 3) Debord states: ` an earlier stage in the economy’s domination of social life entailed an obvious downgrading of being into having that left its stamp on all human behaviour. The present stage, which social life is completely taken over by the accumulated products of the economy, entails a generalised shift from having to appearing: all effective `having` must now derive both its immediate prestige and its ultimate raison dentre from appearances` (Debord 1994:16). Explain in your own words Debord’s analysis of the society of the spectacle. Much of Debord’s ideas of the society of the spectacle were derived from Marxian theory. According to Marxian theory: 1) Society is divided into two structures: the superstructure and the substructure. The superstructure is the set of institutions functioning in the society. The substructure is the economic system utilized by the society. There is a dialectic relationship between these two structures. Initially, the substructure influences the creation of the superstructure. The economic system determines the type of institutions that will be developed in the society. The superstructure then either reinforces or alters the substructure, depending on the needs of the society; 2) The behavior of human wants is always conspicuous. Every individual desires not only the basic needs of life but also the ideal notion of fruitful living. Here, Marxian theory suggests that human want is both arbitrary and unlimited. Individuals will strive to attain what is socially acceptable and what is necessary. Consumption is a means to ‘show’ that these ends are met (echoes Veblen’s idea on conspicuous consumption). Individuals therefore, disregarding the efficacy of moderation, engages in subtle confrontation with the sources of frustration. The end: the individual becomes more and more attuned to the affairs of the market, and subject to the whims of the ruling class – whom unconsciously is fueling individual frustration to obtain higher market value for their products. Debord expounded on the development of a modern society in which genuine social life has been displaced with its representation – that is, its image. Debord argues that the history and essence of social life can be understood as the ‘decline of being into having, and having into merely appearing. ’ Debord notes that this condition of human life is the event in which commodity completely colonized the virtue of social life – an unconscious process of colonization of the ideal notion of life. The term ‘spectacle’ connotes a social system characterized by the affluence of advance capitalism, the mass media, and capitalist led governments. The spectacle is the general opposite image of society in which the relationship between commodities have, in general, displaced the relationships between people. The worship of the commodity becomes not just a rule but the aspiration of social life. In the society of the spectacle, the quality of life is poor, human perceptions greatly altered by both the market and mass media, and a general degradation of genuine knowledge. Knowledge becomes a tool for distorting reality – obstructing the true essence of the past, and promising a bright future of mass consumption and happiness. Here, individuals becomes attune to the calls of the promise and prevent themselves from realizing that such ‘spectacle’ is only illusory – that the society of spectacle is only a moment in history which can be overturned by collective action. The responsibility therefore of the ‘drugged’ individual is to free himself from the chains of spectacular images through radical action. This radical action will restore the beauty and essence of social life – life defined not by the relations between commodities but by the relations between individuals. 4) Basing yourself on first Levi-Strauss and then Barthess analyses, describe how myths function as types of narratives that carry a message. Levi-Strauss applied the structural linguistics of Saussure to the analysis of family. Traditionally, the family is seen as the fundamental object of analysis and as a self-contained unit consisting typically of a husband, wife, and children (offspring). Levi-Strauss argued that families only acquire determinate identities through relations among units. Levi-Strauss fundamentally altered the classical view of anthropology, putting the secondary family members first and analyzing the relationships among units instead of the units themselves. Levi-Strauss’ application of structural linguistics is also evident in his work Mythologiques, a series of work on myths and legends. According to Levi-Strauss, myths are a type of speech in which a symbolic system could be discovered. This theory attempted to explain the similarities of myths across cultures. Levi-Strauss argued that there is no such thing as ‘singular authentic version of a myth’ rather a general manifestation of the same language. In order to understand this language, the fundamental units of myth, the mytheme, must be examined. To find the mythemes, Levi-Strauss deconstructed each version of a myth into a set of sentences, consisting generally of a relation between a function and a subject. Sentences with the same function and subject were given the same number. Both Levi-Strauss and Barthess analysis of myths revealed striking results. First, the coagulation of myths is a message of a common language. Second, the myth itself not only expressed social, economic, and political values, but also the means in which people throughout the ages communicate. Third, binary opposition is a common characteristic of language – that is, people communicate through binary opposites. And lastly, myths function as a kind of lingual illusion which drives individual to act on the basis of the myth itself (the myth is a self-sufficient source of action). Here, the degree of which an individual communicates the myth to another individual is related to the preponderance of a myth. Hence, the survival of a myth depends on the way and degree to which it is communicated.

Business Cycle Synchronization in Latin America

Business Cycle Synchronization in Latin America Business cycles synchronization in Latin America:  A TVTPMS Approach Introduction: Over the last decades, there has been a growing interest in the business cycle transmissions among countries and interdependencies. The design of regional co-operations and integrations, such as Mercosur or Latin America countries, has the purpose to reduce poverty, amplify society welfare and enhance macroeconomic stability. However, it is crucial to understand the influence of regional integration and the role of external factors on regional business cycle synchronization. Fiess (†¦..) find that a relatively low degree of business cycle synchronization within Central America as well as between Central America and the United States. Grigoli (2009) analyzed the causation relations among business activities of the Mercosur countries to determine which cycles are dependent on others, considering trade intensity, trade structure and the influences of the EU and US as well. He find some causation relations among the South-American countries; however, the EU and US do not play a relevant role in determining the fluctuations of their cycles. Gutierrez and Gomes (†¦..) use the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model to estimate a common trend and common cycle. Aiolfi et al. (2010) identify a sizeable common component in the LA countries’ business cycles, suggesting the existence of a regional cycle Caporale and Girardi (2012) show that the LA region as a whole is largely dependent on external developments and the trade channel appears to be the most important source of business cycle co-movement. They report that the business cycle of the individual LA countries appears to be influenced by country-specific, regional and external shocks in a very heterogenous way. In order to investigate the degree of synchronization of the business cycles among the six major LA economies[1] (namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela) as a whole, we consider the presence of a regional cycle by estimating the common growth cycle with the aim of testing its effect on each country-specific cycle. Besides this introduction, this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 contains the model and describes the data. Section 3 presents the empirical results and finally, section 4 concludes. Data and Methodology : We use quarterly data of the real GDP growth rate of the LAC countries, extracted from Penn World Table , namely †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦, covering the period from the first quarter of †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ to the last quarter of †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. We focus on whether the economic activity in the LAC countries is driven by a joint business cycle. We first look at the engine of growth lies within the LA countries. We therefore firstly begin by studying the existence of a common cycle among the economies studied. Second, we attempt to find the influence of a common factor referred to as the LAC’s business cycle extracted from the estimation of a dynamic common factor model. We employ a measure of business cycles synchronization based on Hamilton’s (1989) original Markov-switching model and the time– varying Markov–switching model developed by Filardo (1994) and reconsidered recently by Kim et al. (2008) to investigate the regional common factor in dating the regional business cycles. This study analyzes whether the synchronization pattern of business cycles in a country has systematically changed with the expansion or recession phases of regional business cycle. In this context, we assumed business cycles in a particular country are driven by regional cycles proxied by the common dynamic factor in real GDP growth of the LA countries, thus we use a dynamic factor model to extract the regional cycle. The main interest of the analysis is that a latent dynamic factor drives the co-movement of a high-dimensional vector of time-series variables which is also affected by a vector of mean-zero idiosyncratic disturbances, ÃŽ µt (Stock, 2010) . The common factors are assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive process. This linear state-space model can be written as follows: (1) (2) where L1,t,†¦,Lk,t are common to all the series, ÃŽ µ and ÃŽ · are independent Gaussian white noise terms. The L matrix of factor loadings measures the instantaneous impact of the common factors on each series. There are two growth phases or regimes with a transition between them governed by a time-varying transition probability matrix. The advantage of such a model is that the regimes can be easily interpreted as regimes of recession and expansion. The estimated equation is the following[2]: , (3) where and The endogenous variable, yt (the real growth rate in a given country at time t) is assumed to visit the two states of a hidden variable, st, that follows a first-order Markov chain, over the T observations[3]. ÃŽ ¼st, ÏÆ', à Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ are real coefficients to be estimated. Denoting zt the leading variable (the regional common factor at time t), we want to know whether zt causes yt+k, k= 1,2, †¦.Under the assumption that both y and z have ergodic distributions, we define the following transition probability functions: (4) where and are elements of the following transition probability matrix: (5) with Pij the probability of switching from regime j at time t − 1 to regime i at time t and i, j =1, 2 with for all i,j∈{1,2. k is a lag. In order to estimate the coefficients of equation (1), we need to maximize the log-likelihood of the unconditional density function of yt: (6) The unconditional density function is the product of the conditional density function and the unconditional probability of st. This is written as[4]: (7) Transition probabilities indicate that the states of expansion and recession are equally persistent, and this persistency is very strong. These probabilities aim to provide information about the likelihood of staying or switching from a given regime of k periods after a regime change in z. If the estimate of ÃŽ ¼1 is positive and ÃŽ ¼2 is negative, then regime 1 can be interpreted as one of expansion and regime 2 as one of contraction. Furthermore, assume that in eq. (†¦) ÃŽ ³1,2 is positive. This indicates that while any increase in leading indicator (z) increases P11, probability that y stays in regime 1, any decrease in z increases 1-P11, probability that y switches from regime 1 k periods later; that is, an expansion (recession) in z leads to an expansion (recession) in another country. Similarly, a negative ÃŽ ³1,2 means that an expansion in z leads to a recession in another country. Additionally, a negative ÃŽ ³2,2 means that any decrease (increase) in leading indicator in creases the probability of staying in regime 2 (switching from regime 2). If both ÃŽ ³1,2 and ÃŽ ³2,2 are insignificant, this would mean that there is no statistically meaningful impact of the occurrence of expansions or recessions in a leading market on the growth regime of the other markets[5]. Empirical Results Fig. 1 refers to the common factor, i.e. the regional growth cycle of the Latin America countries. As we can see, the common factor easily captures the well-known common features of the LA business cycle such as the 1994–95 Mexican crisis and the Tequila crisis. To test the hypothesis of a joint business cycle in the LA, we estimate the TVTPMS model given by Eqs. (1) and (2) with the variable z referring to the common factor (regional cycle). Fig. 1. Common factor in real GDP growth of the Latin America countries The estimation results for the regional cycle as leading variable are reported in Table 1. We find significantly positive ÃŽ ¼1 and negative ÃŽ ¼2 which correspond to a situation of distinct expansion and contraction regimes. Our main findings are based on the significance of the estimated coefficients ÃŽ ³1,2 and ÃŽ ³2,2. When looking at the significance of the coefficient ÃŽ ³1,2 , it is found that the common factor exerts direct effects on Mexico and Venezuela, implying that a high growth rate in regional cycle is informative of GDP expansion phases in these countries. That is, an expansion in common factor increases the probability that Mexico and Venezuela will continue to evolve in an expansion regime (i.e. P11). However, we see that ÃŽ ³2,2 is never significant for these countries. This suggests that the regional cycle can never be considered as a leading indicator of the future state of the cycle in Mexico and Venezuela when they are already in the contraction regime (i.e. P2 2 and P1-22). Conversely, our results show that regional cycle is sensitive to economic fluctuations in Colombia, Chile and Brazil because ÃŽ ³2,2 is significant, thereby implying that any change in regional factor does help predict whether these economies will stay into or escape from contractions. Table 1 Estimation results for the regional cycle as leading variable. The numbers in bold indicate that a high growth rate in Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, and the Brail has an impact on the expansion and recession phases of the regional cycle. The evidence presented here indicates that Latin America countries’ increasing economic interdependence has strengthened both interregional business cycles synchronization. A regional cycle could provide significant informational content in predicting the future state of Mexico and Venezuela only when they are already into the expansionary state and the future state of Colombia, Chile and Mexico when they are already in the contraction regime. That is, the high level of integration reached within the region has enabled Mexico and Venezuela to emerge as a pole of economic growth where their business cycles are mutually reinforced during expansions. In other words, while this increasing economic interdependence tends to strengthen output co-movements when these countries are already in the expansionary state, the shift from contractions to recovery, opposed to Colombia, Chile and Mexico, do not depend on the recovery in other countries. For Argentina, both ÃŽ ³1,2 and ÃŽ ³2,2 is insignificant, implying any change in the regional cycle regional cycle is not sensitive to economic fluctuations in this country. Conclusion The papers other main finding is that a regional cycle could provide significant informational content in predicting the future state of the five of the largest Latin American economies—Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, and Mexico. However, the amplitude and duration of the business cycle are asymmetric, indicating that nonlinearities are important in the growth process. Thus, since the Latin America countries’ business cycles are well-tied together through a regional cycle, the costs of joining a monetary union would be reduced if a deeper regional economic cooperation, including intra-exchange rate stability and macroeconomic policy coordination, before turning on to a full-fledged monetary union. Since the Latin American economies have historically been highly dependent globalization process and demand from outside trading partners it would be interesting repeating a similar exercise with interest rates and cyclical output in advanced countries. References Hamilton, J.D., 1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time  series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384. Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. J. Bus. Econ. Stat.  12, 299–308. [1] These countries have accounted for some 70 percent of the region’s GDP over the past half century (Maddison, 2003, pp. 134–140) [2] The lag structure has been tested with standard AIC, HQ and SC criteria. [3] The occurrence of a regime is referred by a variable st that takes two values: 1 if the observed regime is 1 and 2 if it is regime 2 [4] The lags in the model are chosen using the Akaike information criterion. Moreover, we perform the Ljung–Box (LB) test to check that there is no residual autocorrelation [5] In this case, The TVPMS model converges to the Hamilton fixed probability model